Poker Blogging

People see a lot of bad beats, but have any of you actually played live poker? Or do you guys watch it on TV? I see 1 outers hit all the time. During the WSOP 2008…..it seems like the lower pocket pair won almost everytime. Guys were catching 1 outers/runner runner a ton! Pocket queens lost almost everytime to AQ.

I am not gonna give you the whole people stay in more or you see more hands per hour. I genuinely feel like the biggest contributing factor to why people believe online poker is not random is because they don’t realize that certain hands are not as big a favorite over other hands.

The reason why you feel like your pocket KK’s are always losing to A 2 is because you don’t realize that your are expected to lose 1/3 of those confrontations. And if you play in MTTs with HUGE fields like many online players do you should eventually get a brutal knockout/bad beat.

Even if you always get it all in with the better of it….the odds are still stacked against you actually winning all (or even the majority) of those showdowns.

Ex.) Say, you go all in with pocket QQ’s early in the tourney and beat out AK…..then you go all in later with AK and beat A Q…..then you go all in with JJ and beat 10 10. Then you go all in with AA and lose to 10 J (and get knocked out or severley crippled)

Most people don’t realize that the odds are they should lose (at least) one of those hands.

the odds of you winning every single one of those is (51% * 70% * 80% * 80%) which = 22%

so even if though you get it in with the best of it every single time you still have almost an 80% failure rate in that situation.

And that is if you get in that many perfect all in situations.

And when you finally get knocked out and get your A A cracked you say OMG!!! that is so rigged….when the bottom line is the odds were against you even making it that far in the tournament given the amazing All in confrontations you faced.

hopefully this makes sense to people….but just know that going all in with KK and getting called by A 2….you are only expected to win 2/3 of those….meaning that chances are you will not win 2 of them in a row.

Hope this makes sense and stops the blabbering about online poker being rigged.

Plz comment